Calculation and stability of the β coefficient of China's A-share real estate sector

Hong ZHANG, Zhijun BI

Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (1) : 1-11.

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (1) : 1-11. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2024.22.038
Special Section: Construction Management

Calculation and stability of the β coefficient of China's A-share real estate sector

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Abstract

Objective: The β coefficient is a critical indicator for stock sector investment, and its stability is essential for making informed future investment decisions based on historical data. The real estate sector, known for its high investment risks and stock fluctuations, plays a crucial role in many investors' portfolios. Although there is a growing body of literature on the β coefficient of the real estate sector, research on its systematic calculation and stability remains limited. This paper analyzes the changes and stability of the β coefficient in the real estate sector, providing valuable insights for investors. Methods: Through method screening, this paper uses the single index equation to calculate the monthly and annual β coefficients of the Chinese A-share real estate sector from 2013 to 2022. After confirming data stationarity, daily data are processed through least squares regression analysis to obtain accurate and reliable monthly and annual β coefficients. The stability of the β coefficient is assessed using the Chow test for adjacent calendar months and years, and statistical analysis is conducted on the results. Ultimately, the study includes a comparative analysis between the real estate, financial, and construction sectors to provide a comprehensive understanding of the β coefficient characteristics. Results: The research results reveal the followings: (1) The monthly and annual mean β coefficients of the real estate sector are close to but less than 1. Monthly β coefficients show significant variability, while the annual β coefficient initially increases and then decreases. (2) The monthly β coefficient demonstrates stronger stability compared to the annual β coefficient. (3) The trajectories of the β coefficient in both the real estate and construction sectors are highly similar, with the stability of the β coefficient in the real estate sector being lower than that of the construction sector but higher than that of the financial sector. Conclusions: There are clear differences in the stability characteristics of the monthly and annual β coefficients in the real estate sector, and these differences vary across different sectors. This paper suggests that the followings: (1) Short-term investors should monitor changes in monthly β coefficients to predict market volatility. (2) For long-term investment decisions based on the real estate sector's β coefficients, timely adjustments should be made according to macroeconomic factors and other variables. (3) When investing across different stock sectors, investors should focus on the volatility relationship among the construction, financial, and the real estate sectors, and adopt appropriate risk hedging strategies to reasonably diversify investment risks.

Key words

real estate sector / β coefficient / single index equation / stability / Chow test

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Hong ZHANG , Zhijun BI. Calculation and stability of the β coefficient of China's A-share real estate sector[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2025, 65(1): 1-11 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2024.22.038

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