Objective: Erbium is a heavy rare earth element widely used in strategic high-tech industries. As globalization progresses, the global value chain division of labor for erbium continues to change. However, the limited volume of erbium usage complicates data collection for research, leading to a scarcity of studies on the use of erbium resources. Methods: This study analyzes the material flow characteristics of erbium throughout its full lifecycle in the Chinese Mainland from 2011 to 2020. The L. Ridenour logistic growth model is used to forecast demand, and scenario analysis is conducted to predict the supply of secondary resources, aiming to assess the current state of erbium resource utilization and predict future trends. Results: The analysis of the current situation reveals that during the mining stage, the extraction of raw ore containing erbium in China has generally increased; however, the compound annual growth rate is only 2%. The production of erbium-containing rare earth concentrates experienced two notable declines, mainly owing to changes in international circumstances and policies. In the separation and refining stages, domestic supply does not meet the processing demands for erbium, leading to substantial imports of erbium oxide, which increased from 471.06 tons in 2011 to 522.45 tons in 2020. In the manufacturing and usage phases, erbium-doped fiber amplifiers remain the largest application, accounting for 37% of the demand in 2020. The second-largest application is medical laser crystals, which continue to observe growing demand. In addition, the proportion of erbium demand in glass materials rose from 8% in 2011 to 17% in 2020 owing to the increasing application of rare earth elements in the glass industry, whereas the applications of erbium in fluorescent and ceramic materials gradually decreased. The position of China in the global erbium value chain has been steadily improving, transitioning from a net importer to a net exporter of erbium-based end products. However, China remained a net importer in the end-product sector in 2020 owing to substantial imports of aluminum-erbium alloys. The cumulative amount of waste generated in the medical laser crystal sector reached 1 331.34 tons in 2020, making it the largest waste source, whereas the cumulative stock-in-use for erbium-doped fiber amplifiers reached 2 624.76 tons, the highest among all sectors. Forecasts indicate that by 2029, the demand for Chinese erbium-based products will reach 1 017.92 tons, with continued growth for erbium-doped fiber amplifiers and medical laser crystals projected to reach 407.16 and 271.65 tons, respectively, by 2029, solidifying their roles as primary applications. If recycling rates increase by 1.5% annually, the supply of secondary resources will exceed 5% of the annual demand by 2029. Conclusions: The erbium industry should actively work to reduce its dependence on overseas supply chains, diversify its sources of erbium supply, and improve the transparency and traceability of the erbium value chain. In addition, this industry should direct the flow of erbium toward high-end applications, such as erbium-doped fiber amplifiers and medical laser crystals, through appropriate policy adjustments. These actions will further strengthen and enhance the position of China in the global erbium value chain.