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Evolution trend of global flood events and risk analysis from 1965 to 2023
Jiahong LIU, Mengxue ZHANG, Jia WANG, Chao MEI
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (10) : 1853-1867.
PDF(34450 KB)
PDF(34450 KB)
Evolution trend of global flood events and risk analysis from 1965 to 2023
Objective: The frequency and intensity of global flood events are increasing, which is deeply driven by climate change and human activities. The key risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are interconnected and collectively influence the occurrence and progression of flood disasters. Therefore, the relationships between these three factors need to be understood, and a comprehensive indicator system for the integrated assessment of flood risk needs to be developed. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of global flood events from 1965 to 2023. Moreover, based on the key risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the flood risk were revealed, which could provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and disaster mitigation decision-making. Methods: This study uses the Emergency Events Database, which includes global flood data, to analyze flood events from 1965 to 2023. This study conducts a trend analysis of the global flood occurrence, affected population, and mortality per unit area from 1965 to 2023. Based on the affected population and mortality per unit area, floods in six continents are classified into light, moderate, and severe categories using the percentage method. Spatial analysis of the flood occurrence, affected population, and mortality per unit area was performed for each country. The results showed the spatial distribution and impact intensity of flood disasters in different regions. In addition, key risk indicators, such as geographic elevation, precipitation, population density, and urbanization rate, are selected to analyze the characteristics of flood risk. Elevation and precipitation represent hazards. Population density indicates exposure, and urbanization rate reflects vulnerability. Trend analysis of these indicators was performed for three distinct periods, i.e., 1965-1984, 1985-2004, and 2005-2023. To examine the spatial trends of these indicators across countries over the entire study period, the Theil-Sen slope estimation method was employed. The entropy weight method was applied to calculate the weight of each risk indicator, and the flood risk values of six continents from 1965 to 2023 were calculated. Results: The main results are as follows: (1) From 1965 to 2023, global flood events show a fluctuating upward trend, although the affected population and number of deaths have shown a downward trend since the 1990s. At the continental level, floods occur most frequently in Asia, Africa, and South America, with a total of 2 322, 1 266, and 1 084 events, respectively. At the national level, Haiti experiences the highest frequency of flood events per unit area, with 23 events per 104 km2. Bangladesh has the highest total number of flood-affected people per unit area, with 27.1 million people per 104 km2, and the highest record of cumulative deaths, with 3 313 deaths per 104 km2. (2) Flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability vary significantly across six continents. Among the indicators, population density and precipitation show the greatest influence on flood risk, with weights of 0.33 and 0.30, respectively. From 1965 to 2023, an obvious regional variation in flood risk across six continents is detected. The flood risk in Asia is significantly higher than that in other continents, with the flood risk values of both Asia and Africa showing a significant increase. By contrast, the flood risk value of South America decreased after 2010. Europe and North America show relatively low and stable flood risk values. Oceania exhibits the lowest flood risk values with significant fluctuations. Conclusions: This study conducts not only a systematic analysis of global flood events over a long time series but also an analysis of the changes in risk indicators, such as precipitation, geographic elevation, population density, and urbanization rate, from 1965 to 2023. Moreover, the relative impact of different indicators is quantified, which clarifies their respective contributions to flood risk. The results further revealed the comprehensively changing characteristics of flood risk. The findings provide guidance and evidence to inform flood prevention planning and disaster response strategies. In the future, exposure change based on population mobility and integrated adaptive capacity should be considered to reveal the dynamic characteristics of flood risk.
global flood / spatiotemporal characteristics / flood risk / risk factors / Emergency Events Database
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