A search-matching model of the housing market was constructed with an ownership market and rental market consolidated into a unified research framework to evaluate the effect of the home-purchase limit policy. Numerical simulations were used to model the dynamic relationship between the household tenure choice and housing price volatility under the home-purchase limit policy. The results show that, in a housing market restricted by the purchase limit policy, the rent is more sensitive than the price to demand shock, with the rent immediately rising to increase the rental return. Thus, housing price growth can be restrained in the current period by freezing the housing demand, but the demand shock will still drive up the rent with further increases in the housing price through the rental return in subsequent periods. Accordingly, this mandatory administrative policy should be replaced by market-oriented economic measures, so that unrealistic market expectations and housing prices can be stabilized in the long run.
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Hong ZHANG,Yang LI,Xuanbing CHEN. Simulation and evaluation of the home-purchase limit policy effect based on a search-matching model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 68-73.
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