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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2015, Vol. 55 Issue (1): 98-104    
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基于四维变分资料同化的核事故源项反演
刘蕴1,方晟1,李红1(),曲静原1,姚仁太2,范丹2
2. 中国辐射防护研究院, 太原 030006
Source inversion in nuclear accidents based on 4D variational data assimilation
Yun LIU1,Sheng FANG1,Hong LI1(),Jingyuan QU1,Rentai YAO2,Dan FAN2
1. Key Laboratory of Advanced Reactor Engineering and Safety of the Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology, Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China
2. China Institute for Radiation Protection, Taiyuan 030006, China
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摘要 

福岛(Fukushima)核事故后,源项反演成为一种重要的核事故放射性释放源项定量计算分析方法。该文引入四维变分(4DVAR)资料同化法,结合中尺度大气扩散模型,提出一种针对核电厂事故的放射性释放源项反演方法。该方法利用核电厂周围监测数据,使用伴随方法迭代计算四维变分代价函数梯度,得到对释放源项的最佳估计。该方法考虑了完整时间序列上的放射性传输过程,对释放源项的估计结果为全局最优。风洞实验验证结果表明: 源项估计的相对误差为20%左右。

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关键词 源项反演四维变分(4DVAR)资料同化大气扩散风洞实验    
Abstract

Source inversion is an important way to quantitatively analyze the radioactive release source in nuclear accidents such as the Fukushima nuclear accident. This study presents an inversion method for radioactive release source estimates in nuclear accidents that couples a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique with a mesoscale atmospheric dispersion model. The method is formulated as an optimization problem between the real observation data and the background field. Environmental radiation monitoring data around the nuclear power station is used to calculate the gradient for cost function by integrating the adjoint to calculate the optimal source estimate. The advantage of this method is that the radionuclide transport is included in every time step in the data assimilation and the result is the global optimum over the whole assimilation period. The method was verified using the data of a wind tunnel experiment. The results demonstrate that source estimate errors are approximately 20%.

Key wordssource inversion    four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation    atmospheric dispersion    wind tunnel experiment
收稿日期: 2014-05-26      出版日期: 2015-05-15
基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(81101030)
引用本文:   
刘蕴,方晟,李红,曲静原,姚仁太,范丹. 基于四维变分资料同化的核事故源项反演[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(1): 98-104.
Yun LIU,Sheng FANG,Hong LI,Jingyuan QU,Rentai YAO,Dan FAN. Source inversion in nuclear accidents based on 4D variational data assimilation. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 98-104.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I1/98
  地面释放归一化体积活度浓度分布
  烟囱释放归一化体积活度浓度分布
  地面释放情况下,风洞实验获得的扩散参数与P-G扩散参数的对比
  烟囱释放情况下,风洞实验获得的扩散参数与P-G扩散参数的对比
  地面释放归一化代价函数收敛曲线
  烟囱释放归一化代价函数收敛曲线
释放
方式
监测数据 Q/(Bq·烟团-1) 误差/%
地面
释放
使用全部测点 5 017.8 49.8
使用代表性测点 7 449.6 25.5
烟囱
释放
使用全部测点 5 039.4 49.6
使用代表性测点 8 222.5 17.8
  基于风洞实验数据的释放率估计
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