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清华大学学报(自然科学版)  2015, Vol. 55 Issue (6): 640-646    
  建设管理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
房地产企业投资的资本成本敏感性
刘洪玉, 徐跃进, 姜沛言
清华大学 建设管理系, 恒隆房地产研究中心, 北京 100084
Capital cost sensitivity of real estate corporate investment
LIU Hongyu, XU Yuejin, JIANG Peiyan
Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 该文利用房地产上市公司的数据, 采用动态面板广义矩估计方法对房地产企业“投资-资本成本”敏感性进行了实证研究。结果表明: 整体上房地产企业投资对资本成本不敏感, 呈现出一定程度的非理性特征; 中小型房地产企业投资对债务资本成本敏感, 与大型企业相比, 其负债水平较低、偿债压力较小; 适应性预期会显著影响房地产企业“投资-资本成本”敏感性, 此效应主要存在于中小型房地产企业中, 2011年一季度后房价增速明显放缓, 中小型企业投资力度开始受资本成本影响, 而大型企业仍不敏感。
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刘洪玉
徐跃进
姜沛言
关键词 房地产投资资本成本敏感性债务风险适应性预期    
Abstract:The capital cost sensitivity of real estate corporate investment is estimated using a generalized method of moments of a dynamic panel based on data of listed companies. The results show that the “investment-capital cost sensitivity” of real estate corporations is not significant, which reveals the irrationality of real estate investment. Secondly, small and medium enterprises are more sensitive to debt cost than large real estate enterprises. Therefore, small and medium corporations have less debt. In addition, the “investment-capital cost sensitivity” can be influenced by adaptive expectation, which is an important characteristic of small and medium corporations. With the slowdown in housing price increases after the first quater of 2011, small and medium size real estate enterprises have begun to pay close attention to capital costs, while the “investment-capital cost sensitivity” of large corporates is still not a significant concern.
Key wordsreal estate investment    capital cost sensitivity    debt risk    adaptive expectation
收稿日期: 2015-02-21      出版日期: 2015-06-15
ZTFLH:  F275.3  
引用本文:   
刘洪玉, 徐跃进, 姜沛言. 房地产企业投资的资本成本敏感性[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 55(6): 640-646.
LIU Hongyu, XU Yuejin, JIANG Peiyan. Capital cost sensitivity of real estate corporate investment. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(6): 640-646.
链接本文:  
http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/  或          http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I6/640
  图1 企业最优资本存量示意图
  表1 主要变量的描述性统计
  表2 不同规模企业的资本成本比较
  表3 全样本回归结果
  表4 按企业规模分组回归结果
  图2 不同规模房地产企业的带息负债率比较[3]
  图3 不同规模房地产企业的速动比率比较[3]
  图4 不同规模房地产企业的市净率比较[14]
  表5 添加市场预期交叉项的回归结果
  表6 不同规模企业分阶段回归结果
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