摘要碳达峰、碳中和目标将加速我国能源系统的低碳转型。为促进全社会的协同行动,需要一个未来低碳能源系统的清晰、完整图景来提供前瞻性引导。而目前,未来低碳能源系统的形态、特征以及敏感性因素尚研究不足。该文发展了一套能源-物质流耦合及敏感性分析方法,建立了2050年低碳能源系统的计量基础,描绘了其整体能源流向和二氧化碳排放源、汇的关系,并分析了其主要组成部分的结构和效率一旦发生变化对二氧化碳排放总量的影响。结果表明,未来低碳能源系统可能将呈现非化石能源为主的一次能源结构和发电结构以及高比例终端电力占比等基本形态,并可能具有电力部门负排放、工业部门排放最大等基本碳排放特征。该系统的碳排放总量对工业部门的电力占比和化石能源发电的效率变化最为敏感,其次是风电占比提高、更多煤电安装碳捕获和封存(carbon capture and sequestration,CCS)及化石能源发电的余热利用等。为此,该文建议严格控制化石能源的终端直接利用,加速电力部门低碳进程,加强探索难减排部门的低碳路径和非化石非电利用,以及大力建设智慧能源系统来保障多能互补。
Abstract：China's peak carbon and carbon neutrality policy targets are accelerating the low-carbon transition of China's energy system. A clear, complete picture of the future low-carbon energy system is needed to provide forward-looking guidance for coordinated country-wide actions. However, there are few studies of the characteristics and sensitivities of China's future low-carbon energy supply. This paper presents a coupled energy-material flow analysis with a sensitivity analysis as a measurement basis for the 2050 low-carbon energy supply system that shows the overall energy flows and the carbon dioxide sources and sinks with analyses of the impacts on the total carbon dioxide emissions caused by changing the structures and efficiencies of the main components. The results indicate that the low-carbon energy system will have some key patterns including a primary energy and power generation structure dominated by non-fossil fuel energy supplies and a high proportion of electricity use in end-use sectors. The carbon dioxide emissions will include negative emissions by the power sector and large emissions by the industrial sector. The total carbon dioxide emissions of this system are most sensitive to changes in the share of electricity use by the industrial sector and changes in the fossil energy power generation efficiencies, followed by the proportion of wind power generation, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for coal power generation, and the use of waste heat power generation. Therefore, the government needs to strictly control the direct end-use of fossil energy, accelerate low-carbon power generation development, strengthen the development of low-carbon pathways for difficult to reform emission sectors, and increase non-electric utilization of non-fossil energy sources. The government must also encourage the vigorous development of smart energy systems to ensure multi-energy usage systems.
麻林巍, 袁园, 李政. 2050年我国低碳能源系统的形态、特征描绘和敏感性分析[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 62(4): 802-809.
MA Linwei, YUAN Yuan, LI Zheng. Mapping the characteristics and sensitivities of China's low-carbon energy supply in 2050. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2022, 62(4): 802-809.
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2022, Vol. 62 
