Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies
WANG Yan1,2, OU Guoli1
1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Economics and Management Office, China Railway Economic and Planning Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100038, China
摘要气候变化问题十分复杂,涉及环境、经济和社会等诸多层面因素,交通排放是影响气候变化的重要因素。该文聚焦可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型在交通政策研究中的应用,共采集涵盖科学引文数据库、科学指南、中国知网等主要数据库的78篇实证研究文献,其中超过50%的文献关注了低碳交通政策的影响。通过梳理文献发现：目前低碳交通政策评估领域的CGE模型实证研究尚处于起步阶段,未来低碳交通CGE模型建模可从政策研究、模型构建和协同效益3个方面进行深入研究。该文提出了将“避免型/转换型/改善型-规划/制度/经济/信息/技术(avoid/shift/improve-planning/regulatory/economic/information/technological,ASI-PREIT)”结构的低碳交通政策矩阵纳入可达性因素的空间可计算一般均衡(spatial computable general equilibrium,SCGE)模型的建模思路,并进行了协同环境—经济—社会效益的低碳交通广义协同效益研究,为拓展低碳交通问题的研究提供参考思路。
Abstract：[Significance］ The issue of climate change is extremely complex and encompasses multiple factors such as the environment, economy, society, and related aspects. With the ongoing maturation of complex system modeling technology, low-carbon transportation research using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model presents a new approach to policy evaluation. The CGE model has three primary advantages for analyzing the economic challenges of transitioning to low-carbon transportation. First, the approach has a solid microeconomic foundation that can directly reflect the mechanism and influence of economic subjects' behavior under the assumption of a rational economic player. Second, CGE models are capable of fully simulating the connections of different economic sectors, which can uncover the transmission effect of transportation policy impact among various sectors, as well as the response of various sectors to the policy impact. Third, the model has two major types, static and dynamic CGE models, which can analyze the short- and long-term impact of different policies, respectively. As an essential prediction tool for policy impact and trend analysis, CGE models can comprehensively reveal the interaction characteristics between the transportation industry and the whole national economy, enabling the prediction of the economic and social impact of low-carbon transportation policies. ［Progress］ This study investigates contemporary research on transportation policies based on the CGE model. A total of 78 relevant empirical studies are collected from the Web of Science, Science Direct, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure, of which more than 50% focus on predicting the impact of low-carbon transportation policies, indicating that the investigation of traffic-related carbon emissions has gradually become a popular topic of empirical analysis using CGE models. The research topics include: (1) The influence of low-carbon transportation economic incentives, such as carbon tax, emission trading scheme, and transportation subsidies. (2) The application effect of low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and carbon capture and storage. (3) The effect of low-carbon transportation urban planning, including land use, vehicle speed limits, walking-oriented urban design, and bicycle-oriented urban space development. (4) Predicting the economic and social impact of the implementation of nationally determined contributions and fuel economy standards. Previous research establishes a solid foundation for prediction and policy analysis in low-carbon transportation research; however, in the context of China's 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality goals, some issues remain that require further exploration and investigation. ［Conclusions and Prospects］ First, regarding emissions reduction policies, differing transportation needs, transportation structure, energy structure, technical level, and macropolicies will affect transportation carbon emissions. The carbon emissions reduction potential of various policies requires further study, and it is essential to propose structured solutions referencing the prediction and design of composite system transportation emissions reduction policies. Based on China's 1+N policy system for advancing the dual carbon goals, this study constructs a low-carbon transportation policy matrix based on the “avoid/shift/improve-planning/regulatory/economic/information/technological (ASI-PREIT)” structure, producing a proposed “policy basket” for low-carbon transportation CGE modeling. This policy matrix will comprehensively reveal the correlation between policy tools for low-carbon transportation CGE modeling and help put forward structured low-carbon solutions. Second, in terms of model construction, accessibility is the most intuitive factor for transportation. As with other sectors, treating the transportation sector simply as a product production sector risks neglecting network and external benefits; therefore, this study proposes the inclusion of transportation accessibility factors in low-carbon transportation CGE models as spatial computable general equilibrium model to identify regional economic correlations and regional product flow. Third, in terms of synergies, carbon emissions reduction in transportation is crucial to achieving China's dual carbon goals and can advance innovation and economic growth, leveraging a wide range of synergies, including sustainable development, improving public health, and enhancing the overall quality of life. Currently, increasingly severe ecological and environmental challenges are forcing global economies to reassess the GDP-centered development model, seeking balanced and sustainable development strategies that include environment, economy, and society. This study proposes the development of a comprehensive low-carbon transportation CGE model to compare and analyze the optimal solutions for balancing the co-benefits of environment-economy-society from a global perspective and design low-carbon transportation policy combinations to advance sustainable development. In summary, this study endeavors to systematically review the empirical research applying CGE models in the field of low-carbon transportation, provide a reference for expanding the research on low-carbon transportation, and help policymakers and the transportation sector achieve China's dual carbon goals.
王妍, 欧国立. CGE模型在低碳交通政策领域的应用及前景[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 63(11): 1693-1706.
WANG Yan, OU Guoli. Application and prospects of the computable general equilibrium model in low-carbon transportation policies. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2023, 63(11): 1693-1706.
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