以火灭火是控制森林火灾蔓延的重要手段之一。然而,现有以火灭火大多依赖专家经验,鲜有定量化分析的相关研究。该文构建了一种用于以火灭火建模分析的定量化火灾蔓延预测模型。该模型采取元胞自动机算法将林火动态蔓延过程定义为网格动力学问题,实现对复杂环境中森林火灾时空动态演化的定量化建模。该模型提出了一种用于以火灭火的网格状态触发机制,将反向点火行为定义为含特定时间触发约束的因素,进而实现对不同时空条件下人为点火因素的定量化模拟分析。为了验证模型的有效性,以2022年8月重庆市北碚区森林火灾为研究案例,分析了不同条件下实施以火灭火策略的效果。实验结果表明：所提出的定量化分析模型能够为森林灭火队伍制订以火灭火策略提供科学辅助,有助于提升森林火灾应急管理的现代化水平。
Abstract
[Objective] Suppression firing is a crucial approach to control the spread of forest fires. However, existing suppression firing mainly relies on rare quantitative analysis by experts, making efficient forest fire control efforts difficult to perform.[Methods] In this paper, a fire spread prediction model was implemented to quantitatively simulate and analyze suppression firing. This model adopted the cellular automata algorithm to define the fire spread as a grid dynamics problem. The forest landscape was divided into contiguous regular cells with different cell burning states (S0: unburned; S1: ignited; S2: flashover; S3: extinguishing; S4: extinguished). Then, multimodal environmental factors such as fuel type, slope, wind, and temperature were considered to construct the rate of the spread function and predict the fire spread speed in various complex scenarios. Next, state update rules were proposed to define how the burning state of forest cells was transformed for different fire conditions. The minimum travel time method was then adopted to iteratively calculate the ignition time of each cell in the forest landscape. Therefore, the spatiotemporal evolution of forest fires in complex environmental scenarios was quantitatively modeled. Additionally, a trigger mechanism was proposed to define reverse ignition behavior as a grid cell with specific time-trigger constraints. This mechanism realized a quantitative simulation analysis of human ignition factors with different spatiotemporal conditions.[Results] To verify the reliability and feasibility of our model, a real forest fire that occurred in the Beibei District of Chongqing in August, 2022 was chosen as the study case. Fire data (fuel type, slope, historical weather, fire perimeter, etc.) and firefighting records (the location and time of fire ignition, suppression firing description, etc.) were collected to reconstruct the firing process. Our model was applied to the suppression firing in this forest fire to analyze the fire control effect for different environmental conditions. The experimental results showed that our model was superior in predicting the spatiotemporal spread of forest fire with competitive model performance (Jaccard: 0.732; Sorensen: 0.845). The spatial location and ignition time of the reverse ignition in suppression firing were quantitatively analyzed and visualized, demonstrating how the reverse fire burned the fuel in advance and impeded the spread of free fires.[Conclusions] Quantitatively modeling the suppression firing can provide effective decision-making for wildfire firefighters to formulate accurate fire control strategies and improve the modernization capability of forest fire management. As a highly complex, dangerous firefighting strategy, more research on the combustion mechanism and simulation method of suppression firing is needed, such as the formation mechanism and modeling method of local microclimate in a forest fire landscape, the barrier effect of the isolation zone, and spatial optimization.
关键词
森林火灾 /
以火灭火 /
元胞自动机 /
火灾建模 /
应急管理
Key words
forest fire /
suppression firing /
cellular automata /
fire modeling /
emergency management
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基金
深圳市学科布局项目(JCYJ20180508152055235)
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