Abstract：[Objective] Threat assessment of targets serves as a critical reference for commanders in wartime decision-making. With the rapid development of unmanned systems and smart technologies, the future of warfare is progressing toward unmanned, multi-domain, and clustered operations. However, existing studies on target threat assessment fall short of effectively satisfying these demands of future warfare, demonstrating three main issues: 1) Majority of combat scenarios focus on singular settings, such as maritime air defense, air-to-air combat, and ground-based air defense, with scant research on multi-domain operations (land, low-altitude, and electromagnetic environments). 2) Research is mainly concentrated on individual entities or cluster targets, such as fighter aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle swarms, and unmanned surface vessels, with inadequate investigation of clustered equipment integrating manned/unmanned ground combat vehicles and low-altitude manned/unmanned aircraft. 3) Current methodologies predominantly consider the state and characteristics of Blue Force targets, ignoring the influence of dynamic changes in Red Force equipment on the weighting of threat indicators for Blue Force targets. [Methods] To deal with these problems, we proposed a dynamic assessment method for threats to clustered targets in low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields based on hesitant fuzzy sets. First, we explored the laws governing low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields and the operational characteristics of clustered equipment that involves manned/unmanned air and ground elements. We analyzed five major influencing factors in the threat assessment of cluster targets, namely, operational cluster type, urgency, comprehensive strike capability, intelligent collaborative capability, and importance of the attack area, and determine an indicator system for threat assessment of clustered targets. Afterward, leveraging the Weber-Fechner law, we explored the relationship between changes in the Red Force's situation and the psychological pressure experienced by commanders and proposed a Weber-Fechner law-based weight determination method, which adjusted the weight values of the Red Force's comprehensive strike capability and the Blue Force's air power strike capability in conjunction with variations in the damage rate of the Red force's air defense capability. Finally, by combining the variable weight method under a hesitant fuzzy environment, a dynamic assessment model based on hesitant fuzzy sets for threats to cluster targets in low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields was constructed. [Results] In a simulation, when the Red Force's air defense system sustains serious damage, the threat posed by the Blue Force's air power intensifies significantly. By utilizing the Weber-Fechner law-based weight adjustment method, the weight determination becomes more scientifically reasonable, effectively and promptly reflecting the psychological changes encountered by commanders when faced with the stimulation of the battlefield situation and reducing the subjectivity and arbitrariness related to weight optimization adjustments. Comparative analysis of the threat assessment results under constant and variable weights demonstrates that cluster targets with air power superiority exhibit more sensitive and timely adjustments in threat assessment results under variable weight conditions with a higher level of consistency. [Conclusions] These results further confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, providing commanders with feasible and reliable decision support.
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2024, Vol. 64 
