石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例

摘要
图/表
参考文献
相关文章
Metrics

全文: PDF(1332 KB) HTML
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要

为定量评估石化园区规划中的区域尺度大气环境风险水平,该文从源头预防高风险产业集聚导致的布局矛盾,综合运用风险识别技术、 CALPUFF大气扩散模型、空间分析方法,构建了石化园区规划层面大气环境风险模拟方法。以某石化园区规划为例,对涉及丙烯腈、氯气、光气、硫化氢、氨气的6个重大危险源的大气风险开展了不同季节下的事故扩散模拟。结果表明:1141.5km²(占评价区域98.7%)范围内大气环境风险水平不同程度提高,其中事故后可能对人体造成不可恢复影响的范围达到326.5km²(28.2%); 秋季气象条件最不利于事故扩散,区域风险水平高于其他季节;二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)项目对区域大气风险水平变化的贡献超过90%。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS

	作者相关文章

关键词 ：规划环境风险评价, 区域风险, CALPUFF大气扩散模型, 石化园区, 事故风险

Abstract：

An integrated method combining risk analysis, a CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km². In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km², human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate producing(MDI) project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.

Key words： planning environmental risk assessment regional risk CALPUFF dispersion model petrochemical park accidental risk

收稿日期: 2013-11-19 出版日期: 2015-01-20

基金资助:中国环境保护部环保公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201209043)

引用本文:

刘毅,刘龙,李王锋,董业斌,张秀青. 石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2015, 55(1): 80-86.
Yi LIU,Long LIU,Wangfeng LI,Yebin DONG,Xiuqing ZHANG. Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2015, 55(1): 80-86.

链接本文:

http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/ 或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2015/V55/I1/80

高风险园区规划大气风险模拟方法

规划拟建的石化园区重大泄漏风险源

风险评价基准体系^[24]

大气风险分布图(基于2010年1月、 4月、 7月、 10月气象数据)

区域大气风险分级统计

不同风险源、不同物质对区域风险贡献(以超过TEEl-2为例)%

排除MDI项目后的区域大气风险空间分布

[1]	王静, 钱瑜. 区域环境风险评价方法初探[J]. 污染防治技术, 2009, 22(1): 19-21. WANG Jing, QIAN Yu. Study on assessment method for regional environmental risk[J]. Pollution Control Technology, 2009, 22(1): 19-21.
[2]	唐征, 吴昌子, 谢白, 等. 区域环境风险评估研究进展[J]. 环境监测管理与技术, 2012, 24(1): 8-11. TANG Zheng, WU Changzi, XIE Bai, et al.Research progress of regional environmental risk assessment[J]. The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring, 2012, 24(1): 8-11.
[3]	谢元博, 李巍, 郝芳华. 基于区域环境风险评价的产业布局规划优化研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013, 33(3): 560-568. XIE Yuanbo, LI Wei, HAO Fanghua. Optimization of industrial layout planning based on regional environmental risk assessment[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013, 33(3): 560-568.
[4]	蔡如钰. 工业开发区规划环境风险影响评价——以福建省某开发区为例[J]. 安全与环境工程, 2009, 16(1): 22-25. CAI Ruyu. Environmental risk impact assessment for the planning of industrial development region: A case study of development zone in Fujian[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2009, 16(1): 22-25.
[5]	王志霞. 区域规划环境风险评价理论, 方法与实践 [D]. 上海: 同济大学, 2007. WANG Zhixia. Study on the Environmental Risk Assessment of Regional-Planning: Theory, Methods and Practice [D]. Shanghai: Tongji University, 2007.
[6]	Xu L, Liu G. The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2009, 91(11): 3290-3296.
[7]	Zabeo A, Pizzol L, Agostini P, et al.Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites Part 1: Vulnerability assessment by multicriteria decision analysis[J]. Environment International, 2011, 37(8): 1295-1306.
[8]	Jonkman S N, Van Gelder P H A J M, Vrijling J K. An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2002, 99(1): 1-30.
[9]	黄圣彪, 王子健, 乔敏. 区域环境风险评价及其关键科学问题[J]. 环境科学学报, 2007, 27(5): 705-713. HUANG Shengbiao, WANG Zijian, QIAO Min. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) at the regional scale[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2007, 27(5): 705-713.
[10]	李沁怡, 蔡旭晖, 王雪, 等. 太原煤化工区有毒气体泄漏环境风险分析[J]. 环境科学学报, 2012, 32(3): 537-544. LI Qinyi, CAI Xuhui, WANG Xue, et al.The environmental risk analysis of toxic gas leakage in Taiyuan coal chemistry industrial zone[J]. Acta Science Circumstantiae, 2012, 32(3): 537-544.
[11]	Yang D, Chen G, Zhang R. Estimated public health exposure to H2S emissions from a sour gas well blowout in Kaixian County, China[J]. Aerosol and Air Quality Research, 2006, 6(4): 430-443.
[12]	US Environmental Protection Agency. Human health risk assessment [Z/OL].(2012-07-09), http://epa.gov/riskass-essment/health-risk.htm.
[13]	HJ/T 169-2004. 建设项目环境风险评价技术导则[S]. 北京: 国家环境保护总局, 2004. HJ/T 169-2004. Technical Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment on Projects[S]. Beijing: Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) of China, 2004.
[14]	GB 18218-2009. 危险化学品重大危险源辨识[S]. 北京: 中国质量监督检验检疫总局, 2009. GB 18218-2009. Identification of Major Hazard Installations for Dangerous Chemicals [S]. Beijing: General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China (AQSIQ), 2009.
[15]	Ma M, Shen H, Kong W. Simulation of revised puff trajectory model in regional atmospheric environmental risks[J]. Argricultural Science & Technology, 2012, 13(10): 2226-2230.
[16]	蒋维楣, 孙鉴泞, 王雪梅. 空气污染气象学 [M]. 南京: 南京大学出版社, 2003: 95-98 JIANG Weimei, SUN Jianning, WANG Xuemei. Air Pollution Meteorology [M]. Nanjing: Nanjing University Press, 2003: 95-98.
[17]	HJ 2. 2-2008. 环境影响评价技术导则大气环境[S]. 北京: 中国环境保护部, 2008. HJ 2. 2-2008. Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment: Atmospheric Environment[S]. Beijing: Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China, 2008.
[18]	Markatos N C, Christolis C, Argyropoulos C. Mathematical modeling of toxic pollutants dispersion from large tank fires and assessment of acute effects for fire fighters[J]. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 2009, 52(17): 4021-4030.
[19]	Xie D, Liu Y, Chen J. Mapping urban environmental noise: A land use regression method[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2011, 45(17): 7358-7364.
[20]	刘毅, 杨晟, 陈吉宁. 基于元胞自动机模型的城市土地利用变化模拟[J]. 清华大学学报: 自然科学版, 2013, 53(1): 72-77. LIU Yi, YANG Sheng, CHEN Jining. Urban land use changes predictions using a cellular automata model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University: Science and Technology, 2013, 53(1): 72-77.
[21]	陈郁, 杨凤林, 宋国宝, 等. 化工企业突发大气环境风险评价标准的探讨[J]. 环境科学学报, 2012, 32(9): 2310-2318. CHEN Yu, YANG Fenglin, SONG Guobao, et al.Study on the inhalation standard of accidental environmental risk assessment in the chemical industry[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2012, 32(9): 2310-2318.
[22]	United States Geological Survey. SRTM3 data of Eurasia [Z/OL].(2012-05-09), http://dds.cr.usgs.gov/srtm/version2_1/SRTM3/Eurasia/.
[23]	师彦俊. 镇海炼化100kt/a硫磺回收装置标定考核及技术分析[J]. 硫酸工业, 2009(6): 29-34. SHI Yanjun. Calibration evaluation and tochnology analysis of ZRCC's 100kt/a sulphur recovery plant[J]. Sulphuric Acid Industry, 2009(6): 29-34.
[24]	Subcommittee on Consequence Assessment and Protective Actions (SCAPA). Protective Action Criteria (PAC) with AWGLs, ERPGs, & TEELs: Rev. 27 for chemicals of concern [Z/OL].(2013-05-13), http://www.atlintl.com/DOE/teels/teel/teel_pdf.html.
[25]	Li G, Polk B J, Meazell L A. ISE analysis of hydrogen sulfide in cigarette smoke[J]. Journal of Chemical Education, 2000, 77(08): 1049.
[26]	王兰芬. 有害气体的嗅觉阈值[J]. 劳动保护, 1983 (11): 22. WANG Lanfen. Odor threshold of harmful gases[J]. Labour Protection, 1983 (11): 22.
[27]	张红玉, 李国学, 杨青原. 生活垃圾堆肥过程中恶臭物质分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(9): 192-199. ZHANG Hongyu, LI Guoxue, YANG Qingyuan. Odor pollutants analyzing during municipal solid waste (MSW) composting[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013, 29(9): 192-199.
[28]	GB 19041-2003. 光气及光气化产品生产安全规程[S]. 北京: 国家安全生产监督管理局, 2003 GB 19041-2003. Safety Regulations for the Production of Phosgene and Phosgenation Productss[S]. Beijing: State Administration of Work Safety, 2003.

No related articles found!

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed