雅江中游水能资源丰富,水电开发已初具规模,依托水电的灵活调节能力建设的水风光清洁能源基地是“十四五”可再生能源规划的重要组成部分。尽管雅江中游地区的水能、风能、太阳能资源禀赋优越,但风电、光伏发电的强间歇性、波动性和随机性却制约了能源的高效开发利用。合理利用水风光出力的互补性(定义为一种能源的低可用性可由其他能源补偿)是提高风光能源出力稳定性的有效策略,但现有互补性评价指标缺少物理意义、可解释性差。该文以雅江中游的山南市为研究区,基于水风光发电的功率曲线构建互补性量化指标,评估研究区的风能太阳能资源(简称“风光资源”)和时空特征,进一步分析考虑水电调节作用的水风光出力互补性。结果表明：山南市光伏发电的技术和经济可开发量分别为183.9和183.3 GW;风力发电技术可开发量为75.5 GW,但经济可开发量仅32.2 GW (占技术可开发量42.6%)。从空间角度,洛扎县与浪卡子县南部区域风光出力互补性显著优于其他区域;区域间,山南市西北部和北部之间互补性最强;从构建电网友好型清洁能源基地的角度,建议山南市同时开发贡嘎县、琼结县和曲松县内风光资源或优先单独开发措美县风光资源。从时间角度,1980—2023年,研究区的风速和向下短波辐射呈下降趋势,风光出力互补性也呈下降趋势;但水电可以显著缓解研究区风光出力互补性的下降趋势,例如与风光出力互补性相比,水风光出力互补性的年际变异性降低约36.8%;从季节角度,水电对风光出力互补性的提升作用在夏季最大(约为多年平均值的3.4倍)。未来雅江中游风速和向下短波辐射长期下降趋势可能降低风光出力互补性,但区域内丰富的水能资源可以有效地平抑风光出力波动性,从而提高雅江中游水风光基地联合出力的长期稳定性。该文结果可为雅江中游水风光清洁能源基地规划和建设提供科学参考。
Abstract
[Objective] The midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB-M) is rich in hydropower resources, and several hydropower plants have already been constructed. Under China's 14th Five-Year Plan, the development of hydro-wind-solar (HWS) renewable energy bases that leverage the dispatch flexibility of hydropower plants has been proposed. Although HWS resources are abundant, integrating wind and solar power into the grid remains challenging due to their high intermittency, variability, and randomness. Scientifically exploiting HWS generation complementarity—defined as the ability of one energy source to compensate for the low availability of others—is an effective strategy for improving wind and solar generation. However, existing complementarity indexes often lack clear physical significance and are difficult to interpret. Therefore, developing a complementarity index with explicit physical significance, and clarifying the spatiotemporal patterns and enhancement pathways of wind-solar output complementarity based on a rigorous assessment of wind-solar resource distributions in the YZRB-M, are essential for the construction and stable operation of an HWS renewable energy base. [Methods] Accordingly, this study develops a quantitative indicator for HWS generation complementarity based on power generation curves. After evaluating the development potential of wind and solar resources, the spatiotemporal characteristics of HWS energy complementarity are assessed for Shannan City in the YZRB-M. [Results] The results show that the technological and economic development potentials for solar energy are 183.9 and 183.3 GW, respectively. The technological development potential for wind energy is 75.5 GW, and the economic development potential accounts for only 42.6% of that potential (i.e., 32.2 GW). Spatially, wind-solar energy complementarity is significantly stronger in Lhoka County and southern Nagarze County than in other regions of Shannan City, with the northwest-north zone showing the highest interregional complementarity. To build a grid-friendly clean energy base, we recommend either concurrent development of wind and solar resources in Gonggar, Qonggyai, and Qusum Counties, or prioritized standalone development in Comai County. Temporally, wind speed and solar radiation in Shannan City have declined over the past 44 years, accompanied by a decreasing trend in wind-solar complementarity. Nevertheless, hydropower effectively mitigates this decline: the interannual variability of HWS complementarity is reduced by ~36.8% compared with wind-solar complementarity alone, with the most pronounced improvement (3.4 times) occurring in summer. [Conclusions] Future long-term declines in wind speed and solar radiation in the YZRB-M may further weaken wind-solar complementarity. However, abundant hydropower resources can mitigate the volatility of wind and solar power generation, thereby enhancing the long-term stability of power generation from an HWS renewable energy base. Our findings provide a scientific basis for the planning and construction of renewable energy bases in the YZRB-M.
关键词
雅鲁藏布江中游 /
水风光清洁能源基地 /
风光资源时空特征 /
水风光出力互补性
Key words
midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin /
hydro-wind-solar renewable energy base /
spatiotemporal characteristics of wind-solar resource /
hydro-wind-solar generation complementarity
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] PERERA A T D, NIK M N, Chen D L, et al. Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems[J]. Nature Energy, 2020, 5(2): 150-159.
[2] WANG L C, LIU Y W, ZHAO L, et al. Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China[J]. National Science Review, 2025, 12(1): nwae424.
[3] 李双成, 张雅娟, 王铮, 等. 发展新能源地理学的一些构想[J/OL]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版). (2025-06-20)[2025-10-13]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.050. LI S C, ZHANG Y J, WANG Z, et al. Some ideas on the development of new energy geography.[J/OL]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis(2025-06-20)[2025-10-13]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2025.050. (in Chinese)
[4] WEN Q, XIA S Y, YANG Y. Enhance the climate resilience of renewable power systems[J]. The Innovation Energy, 2025, 2(3): 100101.
[5] 蒋子文. 东北三省为何“被迫”拉闸限电？官方披露原因[EB/OL]. 澎湃新闻.(2021-09-27)[2025-10-13]. https:// www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_14689139. JIANG Z W. Why were Three Northeastern Provinces forced to implement power rationing? Authorities reveal reasons[EB/OL]. The Paper. (2021-09-27)[2025-10-13]. https:// www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_14689139. (in Chinese)
[6] 赵静波, 张思聪, 廖诗武. 美国加州8月中旬停电事故分析及思考[J]. 电力工程技术, 2020, 39(6): 52-57. ZHAO J B, ZHANG S C, LIAO S W. Analysis and reflection for the rotating outages in mid-August 2020 in California[J]. Electric power engineering technology, 2020, 39(6): 52-57. (in Chinese)
[7] ZHAO J, LI F X, ZHANG Q W. Impacts of renewable energy resources on the weather vulnerability of power systems[J]. Nature Energy, 2024, 9:1407-1414.
[8] HUNT J D, BYERS E, WADA Y, et al. Global resource potential of seasonal pumped hydropower storage for energy and water storage[J]. Nature Communications, 2020, 11(1): 947.
[9] HUNTER C A, PENEV M M, REZNICEK E P, et al. Techno-economic analysis of long-duration energy storage and flexible power generation technologies to support high-variable renewable energy grids[J]. Joule, 2021, 5(8): 2077-2101.
[10] HOU J, LING Y, JUN Q, et al. Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands[J]. Nature Communications, 2025, 16: 4523.
[11] AN K X, ZHENG X Z, SHENG J X, et al. Repositioning coal power to accelerate net-zero transition of China's power system[J]. Nature Communications, 2025, 16(1): 2311.
[12] SHEN J J, WANG Y, LIN M K, et al. Quantifying the impact of extreme weather on China's hydropower-wind-solar renewable energy system[J]. Nature Water, 2025, 3: 415-429.
[13] 关于印发“十四五”可再生能源规划的通知[EB/OL]. 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.(2022-06-01)[2025-10-13]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202206/t20220601_1326720.html?code=%26state=123. Notice on issuing the “14th Five-Year plan” for renewable energy[EB/OL]. National Development and Reform Commission.(2022-06-01)[2025-10-13]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202206/t20220601_1326720.html?code=%26state=123.(in Chinese)
[14] LAURA F P, MARTIN G R. A new methodology to easy integrate complementarity criteria in the resource assessment process for hybrid power plants: Offshore wind and floating PV[J]. Energy Conversion and Management: X, 2025, 26: 100938.
[15] JURASZ J, CANALES F A, KIES A, et al. A review on the complementarity of renewable energy sources: Concept, metrics, application and future research directions[J]. Solar Energy, 2020, 195: 703-724.
[16] DOMINIK H, LUEDER V B, MARTIN G, et al. Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe[J]. Renewable Energy, 2010, 35(11): 2483-2489.
[17] WANG Z, HAO Z, JIA X F, et al. Unravelling spatiotemporal patterns of solar photovoltaic plants development in China in the 21st century[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2024, 19(3): 034005.
[18] ZHENG D S, YAN X Z, TONG D, et al. Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems[J]. Nature, 2025, 643(8074): 1263-1270.
[19] 朱蓉, 孙朝阳, 阎宇平, 等. 青藏高原风能资源与开发潜力[M]. 1版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2025: 151-161. ZHU R, SUN C Y, YAN Y P, et al. Wind energy and development potential in the Tibetan Plateau[M]. 1st ed. Beijing: China Science Publishing & Media Ltd (CSPM), 2025: 151-161. (in Chinese)
[20] TONG D, FARNHAM D J, DUAN L, et al. Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide[J]. Nature Communications, 2021, 12(1):6146.
[21] FAN Y K, ZHONG P A, ZHU F L, et al. Assessing the potential and complementary characteristics of China's solar and wind energy under climate change[J]. Renewable Energy, 2025249: 123213.
[22] AKINOBU M, HIROSHI Y, KENJI O. A method of estimating the output fluctuation of many photovoltaic power generation systems dispersed in a wide area[J]. Electrical Engineering in Japan, 2008, 166: 9-19.
[23] JOAKIM W. A model of spatially integrated solar irradiance variability based on logarithmic station-pair correlations[J]. Solar Energy, 2015, 122: 1409-1424.
[24] BRIAN T, FABIAN M, SCOTT S. Solar power variability and spatial diversification: implications from an electric grid load balancing perspective[J]. International Journal of Energy Research, 2012, 37: 1002-1016.
[25] JIANG Y Z, TANG W J, YANG K, et al. Development of a high-resolution near-surface meteorological forcing dataset for the Third Pole region[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2025, 68(4): 1274-1290.
基金
国家自然科学基金专项项目(42041004); 水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室项目(sklhse-TD-2024-A01)
PDF(8178 KB)
