水文-气象融合视角下城市致洪暴雨关键特征

曹雪健, 刘嘉培, 赵钟楠, 倪广恒, 王中根

清华大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (10) : 1966-1976.

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清华大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (10) : 1966-1976. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2026.27.038
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水文-气象融合视角下城市致洪暴雨关键特征

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Key characteristics of urban flood-producing rainstorms from an integrated hydrometeorological perspective

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摘要

为进一步深化对暴雨致洪机理的认识,该文提出了水文气象融合的降雨时空特征量化方法,建立了新的降雨时空特征评价体系,综合利用降雨升尺度方法和城市洪水数值模拟技术,系统分析了不同空间分辨率下降雨时空特征表达的变化规律,以及降雨时空特征变化的洪水效应。结果表明,空间分辨率由100 m降低至10 km会低估降雨强度和降雨时空变异性、延长降雨历时、扩大强降雨覆盖范围,导致—40%~10%的洪峰流量偏差。总体来看,降雨时间特征在64%的水平上决定洪峰流量,在70%的水平上决定洪水高流量过程,相比于降雨空间特征发挥了更为重要的作用。30 min最大降雨强度对洪水峰值的贡献最大,重要性评分接近30%,但降雨落区的位置等因素同样不可忽视。该文揭示了观测空间分辨率变化对降雨时空特征表达的影响规律,发现了城市致洪暴雨的关键特征,有利于深化对暴雨致洪机理的认识、提升城市防洪安全韧性。

Abstract

Objective: Extreme rainstorms are increasingly threatening urban flood safety under climate change and rapid urbanization. Because rainfall is a direct driver of urban flooding, existing studies usually describe flood-producing rainstorms using meteorological indicators such as rainfall amount, duration, intensity, and coverage. However, in complex urban catchments, rainfall spatiotemporal heterogeneity interacts with highly variable underlying surface and drainage conditions, making meteorological indicators alone insufficient to explain flood responses. Current studies still insufficiently account for the hydrological properties of rainfall areas and the effects of observation spatial resolution on rainfall characterization. Therefore, we develop a hydrometeorological-integrated method for quantifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall and combine rainfall upscaling with urban flood simulation to examine how rainfall characteristics and underlying surface conditions jointly affect flood processes while identifying key features of urban flood-producing rainstorms. Methods: The Qing River basin in Beijing, a typical highly urbanized catchment of approximately 200 km2 characterized by fragmented impervious surfaces and dense drainage networks, was selected as the study area. Rainfall fields were obtained from two X-band dual-polarization weather radars with a temporal resolution of 3 min and an original spatial resolution of 75 m. Radar quantitative precipitation estimation was conducted based on specific differential phase information and evaluated using observations from meteorological stations. The rainfall product was converted into a 100 m regular grid and spatially upscaled to 300 m, 500 m, 1 km, 3 km, and 10 km resolutions. Seven representative rainfall events with different rainfall amounts, intensities, movement paths, and spatial patterns were selected to construct rainfall scenarios. A hydrometeorological-integrated method incorporating eight temporal indicators related to rainfall duration, amount, intensity, and variability, along with eight spatial indicators related to rainfall spatial variability, impervious-area rainfall, rainstorm coverage, and rainfall-area distance to drainage elements, was established to quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall. Urban flood processes were simulated under different rainfall scenarios using a grid-based urban hydrological model that represents runoff generation and routing over pervious areas, impervious areas, drainage pipes, and river channels. Peak flow bias and high-flow accuracy were used to evaluate flood impacts, whereas correlation and random forest importance analyses were used to identify the key rainfall characteristics controlling urban flood responses. Results: The results show that decreasing rainfall spatial resolution considerably changed the expression of rainfall spatiotemporal characteristics. When the resolution was decreased from 100 m to 10 km, rainfall amount, rainfall intensity, and spatiotemporal variability were generally underestimated, rainfall duration was prolonged, and rainfall coverage and rainfall-area distances generally increased. At the 10 km resolution, the median underestimation of peak rainfall intensity reached approximately 30%, and rainfall spatial variability decreased by approximately 40%. These changes further affected urban flood simulations and resulted in peak flow biases of up to −40%. Random forest analysis showed that temporal rainfall characteristics contributed approximately 64% and 70% to peak- and high-flow formations, respectively, indicating their dominant role in shaping urban flood responses. Among all indicators, the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity had the greatest influence on flood peaks, with an importance score close to 30%. Meanwhile, spatial indicators such as rainfall-area distance and rainfall over impervious areas had non-negligible effects, with importance scores of approximately 10%. Conclusions: In this study, we develop a hydrometeorological-integrated method for quantifying rainfall spatiotemporal characteristics and identifying urban flood-producing rainstorms. Results show that rainfall observation resolution directly affects rainfall intensity, variability, coverage, and location characteristics, thereby considerably affecting urban flood simulations. Rainfall intensity, particularly the maximum 30-min intensity, dominates flood peaks and high-flow processes, whereas rainfall-area hydrological properties and distances to drainage systems remain critical. The proposed framework extends rainfall characterization beyond conventional meteorological indicators and supports more accurate rainfall monitoring and urban flood prediction.

关键词

暴雨洪水 / 城市洪水 / 降雨特征 / 水文气象 / 空间分辨率 / 洪水模拟

Key words

rainstorm flood / urban flood / rainfall characteristics / hydrometeorology / spatial resolution / flood simulation

引用本文

导出引用
曹雪健, 刘嘉培, 赵钟楠, 等. 水文-气象融合视角下城市致洪暴雨关键特征[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版). 2026, 66(10): 1966-1976 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2026.27.038
Xuejian CAO, Jiapei LIU, Zhongnan ZHAO, et al. Key characteristics of urban flood-producing rainstorms from an integrated hydrometeorological perspective[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2026, 66(10): 1966-1976 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2026.27.038
中图分类号: TV122.1   

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基金

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52309037)

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