PDF(1393 KB)
PDF(1393 KB)
PDF(1393 KB)
燃料乙醇系统不确定性分析及优化
Uncertainty analysis and optimization of the fuel ethanol system
为解决燃料乙醇企业面临的诸如原料产品市场价格波动,工艺参数不断变化等不确定性条件影响下的生产经营决策问题,进一步降低系统成本及提高整体效益,该文分析了系统可能存在不确定性的影响因素,建立了在这些因素影响下的2类随机规划模型。以纤维素乙醇系统为案例对企业在设计阶段面临的设计裕量问题和运行阶段面临的原料结构问题加以研究,建立了针对性的两层随机机会约束规划模型并设计了智能优化算法进行求解。求解结果表明:不确定性较确定性优化更为合理,且能够在节省系统成本的同时增强系统对未来风险的抵抗能力。
Decision-making in fuel ethanol production faces many uncertainties arising from raw material and product price fluctuations, and process parameter changes. This study analyzes how to reduce the costs and improve the overall efficiency even with these system uncertainties using two types of system uncertainty optimization models with these factors. The research uses a cellulosic ethanol system as a sample case to analyze the design margin problems in the design phase and the raw-material structural problems in the operating phase. The analysis uses stochastic chance-constrained programming model. The results show that uncertainty optimization is more reasonable than certainty optimization, and that the model can reduce costs as well as enhance the system risk resistance.
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