安全韧性已成为城市安全研究的热点领域。该文基于韧性曲线定义城市安全韧性水平，提出包含城市结构模型、城市安全韧性模型、突发事件模型、城市恢复模型的城市安全韧性定量分析框架，并以地震灾害为例，建立包含建筑、交通、能源、通信、供水等子系统的虚拟城市模型，通过Monte Carlo方法开展城市安全韧性定量分析研究。该分析框架和方法具有较好的可拓展性，可为安全韧性城市构建与评价提供支持。
Abstract
Safety resilience is an important field in urban safety research. This paper defines the level of urban safety resilience based on a resilience curve and presents an urban safety resilience model that includes an urban structure model, urban safety resilience model, emergency model and urban recovery model. The model is used to analyze a virtual city including the architecture, traffic, power, communication and water supply sub-systems. The urban seismic safety resilience is then analyzed quantitatively using the Monte Carlo method. The model framework and method have good scalability and can provide support for constructing and assessing the safety resilient of a city.
关键词
韧性曲线 /
安全韧性 /
城市 /
Monte Carlo方法
Key words
resilience curve /
safety resilience /
city /
Monte Carlo method
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基金
黄弘,教授,E-mail:hhong@tsinghua.edu.cn
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