该文将1997年亚洲金融危机看作自然实验，利用外生的汇率冲击探讨了出口对企业避税行为的影响。构造了企业层面的汇率冲击指数作为企业出口的工具变量，并且同时控制了企业在金融危机之前（1995年工业普查）的企业特征，有效地避免了出口内生性问题。实证研究表明：相比出口到货币贬值程度较轻国家的企业而言，出口目的国是货币贬值程度更重国家时，企业的出口增长会相对较慢，从而导致企业的避税行为增加。该文同时还论证了出口到欠发达地区，较弱的国际监督会促使企业采取更多的避税行为。
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 is used as a natural test of how an exogenous exchange rate shock impacts corporate tax avoidance. This paper constructs a firm level exchange rate shock model from export destination information in the 1995 industry survey. An empirical analysis shows that firms whose export destinations experience greater currency depreciation have slower export growth and stronger incentives to engage in tax avoidance. This paper also demonstrates that weaker supervision induced by exporting to poor countries motivates firms to avoid income taxes.
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