[1] 何大明, 冯彦. 国际河流跨境水资源合理利用与协调管理[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2006. HE D M, FENG Y. Reasonable utilization and coordinated management of transboundary water resources of international rivers[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2006. (in Chinese)
[2] United Nations. Progress on transboundary water cooperation under the water convention:Report on implementation of the convention on the protection and use of transboundary watercourses and international lakes[M]. New York:United Nations, 2018.
[3] MCCRACKEN M, WOLF A T. Updating the register of international river basins of the world[J]. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2019, 35(5):732-782.
[4] UNESCO. 全球跨境水合作领域进展[EB/OL]. (2018-09-03)[2021-01-28]. https://zh.unesco.org/news/quan-qiu-kua-jing-shui-he-zuo-ling-yu-jin-zhan.UNESCO. Progress in the field of global transboundary water cooperation[EB/OL]. (2018-09-03)[2021-01-28]. https://zh.unesco.org/news/quan-qiu-kua-jing-shui-he-zuo-ling-yu-jin-zhan. (in Chinese)
[5] United Nations. Progress on transboundary water cooperation 2018:Global baseline for SDG 6 indicator 6.5.2[M]. New York:United Nations, 2019.
[6] SADOFF C W, GREY D. Cooperation on international rivers:A continuum for securing and sharing benefits[J]. Water International, 2009, 30(4):420-427.
[7] PETERSEN-PERLMAN J D, VEILLEUX J C, WOLF A T. International water conflict and cooperation:Challenges and opportunities[J]. Water International, 2017, 42(2):105-120.
[8] GROTE M. Internationale politik:Ein konfliktmodell by ernst-otto czempiel[J]. American Political Science Review, 1982, 76(3):706-707.
[9] UNDESA. International decade for action ‘Water for Life’ 2005-2015. Focus areas:Water cooperation[EB/OL] (2013-01)[2021-03-30]. https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/water_cooperation.shtml.
[10] United Nations. Target 6.5-water resources management[EB/OL].[2020-10-29]. https://www.sdg6monitoring.org/indicators/target-65/.
[11] United Nations. Indicator|SDG 6 Data[EB/OL].[2020-10-29]. https://sdg6data.org/indicator/6.5.1.
[12] JUST R E, NETANYAHU S. Conflict and cooperation on trans-boundary water resources[M]. Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998.
[13] SALMAN S M A. Downstream riparians can also harm upstream riparians:The concept of foreclosure of future uses[J]. Water International, 2010, 35(4):350-364.
[14] O'HARA S L. Lessons from the Past:Water management in central Asia[J]. Water Policy, 2000, 2(4):365-384.
[15] HARDIN G. The tragedy of the commons[J]. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2009, 1(3):243-253.
[16] GUO L D, ZHOU H W, XIA Z Q, et al. Evolution, opportunity and challenges of transboundary water and energy problems in Central Asia[J]. Springerplus, 2016, 5(1):1918.
[17] TAWFIK R. Revisiting hydro-hegemony from a benefit-sharing perspective:The case of the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam[R/OL]. (2015-05)[2021-01-22]. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/199455.
[18] GEBRELUEL G. Ethiopia's grand renaissance dam:Ending Africa's oldest geopolitical rivalry?[J]. The Washington Quarterly, 2014, 37(2):25-37.
[19] COMAIR G F, MCKINNEY D C, SIEGEL D. Hydrology of the Jordan river basin:Watershed delineation, precipitation and evapotranspiration[J]. Water Resources Management, 2012, 26(14):4281-4293.
[20] ZEITOUN M. Power and water in the Middle East:The hidden politics of the Palestinian-Israeli water conflict[M]. London:I.B. Tauris, 2008.
[21] SMITH L V. Sovereignty at the Paris peace conference of 1919[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press, 2018.
[22] TESSLER M A. A history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict[M]. 2nd ed. Bloomington:Indiana University Press, 2009.
[23] FRÖHLICH C J. Security and discourse:The Israeli-Palestinian water conflict[J]. Conflict, Security & Development, 2012, 12(2):123-148.
[24] JONGERDEN J. Dams and politics in turkey:Utilizing water, developing conflict[J]. Middle East Policy, 2010, 17(1):137-143.
[25] WEISS M I. A perfect storm:The causes and consequences of severe water scarcity, institutional breakdown and conflict in Yemen[J]. Water International, 2015, 40(2):251-272.
[26] BROMWICH B. Nexus meets crisis:A review of conflict, natural resources and the humanitarian response in Darfur with reference to the water-energy-food nexus[J]. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2015, 31(3):375-392.
[27] MIRUMACHI N. Transboundary water politics in the developing world[M]. London; New York:Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2015.
[28] 中华人民共和国外交部. 澜沧江-湄公河合作概况[EB/OL].[2021-01-22]. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/yzs_673193/dqzz_673197/lcjmghhz_692228/gk_692230/. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. Lancang-Mekong cooperation[EB/OL].[2021-01-22]. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/yzs_673193/dqzz_673197/lcjmghhz_692228/gk_692230/. (in Chinese)
[29] YOSHIMATSU H. The United States, China, and geopolitics in the Mekong Region[J]. Asian Affairs:An American Review, 2015, 42(4):173-194.
[30] U.S. Mission to ASEAN. Launch of the Mekong-U.S. partnership:Expanding U.S. Engagement with the Mekong Region[EB/OL]. U.S. Mission to ASEAN. (2020-09-15)[2021-03-08]. https://asean.usmission.gov/launch-of-the-mekong-u-s-partnership-expanding-u-s-engagement-with-the-mekong-region/.
[31] OSBORNE M. The Mekong[M]. New York:Atlantic Monthly Press, 2000.
[32] BAMÓN R, LABARCA R, PALIS J, et al. Dynamical systems[M]. Berlin New York:Springer-Verlag, 1988.
[33] JACKSON T, RADUNSKAYA A. Applications of dynamical systems in biology and medicine[M]. New York:Springer, 2015.
[34] STROGATZ S H. Nonlinear dynamics and chaos:With applications to physics, biology, chemistry, and engineering[M]. 2nd ed. Boca Raton:CRC Press, 2018.
[35] STANOJEVIĆJ, KUKIĆ K. Dynamical systems in economics[J]. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2018, 1926(1):020043.
[36] TURCHIN P. Toward cliodynamics:An analytical, predictive science of history[J]. Cliodynamics, 2011, 2(1):167-186.
[37] VALLACHER R R, NOWAK A. Dynamical systems in social psychology[M]. San Diego:Academic Press, 1994.
[38] MEISS J. Dynamical systems[J]. Scholarpedia, 2007, 2(2):1629.
[39] SADOFF C W, GREY D. Beyond the river:The benefits of cooperation on international rivers[J]. Water Policy, 2002, 4(5):389-403.
[40] WOLF A T, YOFFE S B, GIORDANO M. International waters:Identifying basins at risk[J]. Water Policy, 2003, 5(1):29-60.
[41] ZEITOUN M, MIRUMACHI N. Transboundary water interaction I:Reconsidering conflict and cooperation[J]. International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, 2008, 8(4):297-316.
[42] DINAR S. Scarcity and cooperation along international rivers[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 2009, 9(1):109-13.
[43] WOLF A, STAHL K, MACOMBER M. Conflict and cooperation within international river basins:The importance of institutional capacity[J]. Universities Council on Water Resources, Water Resources Update, 2003:125
[44] CHOUDHURY E, ISLAM S. Complexity of transboundary water conflicts:Enabling conditions for negotiating contingent resolutions[M]. London:Anthem Press, 2018.
[45] MADANI K. Game theory and water resources[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 381(3-4):225-238.
[46] DO P, TIAN F Q, ZHU T J, et al. Exploring synergies in the water-food-energy nexus by using an integrated hydro-economic optimization model for the Lancang-Mekong river basin[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 728:137996.
[47] LU Y, TIAN F Q, GUO L Y, et al. Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang-Mekong River[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 25(4):1883-1903.
[48] ISLAM S, MADANI K. Water diplomacy in action:Contingent approaches to managing complex water problems[M]. London:Anthem Press, 2017.
[49] TFDD. Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database:Program in water conflict management and transformation[DB/OL].[2020-11-27]. College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University. https://transboundarywaters.science.oregonstate.edu/content/transboundary-freshwater-dispute-database.
[50] SWANSTRÖM N L P, WEISSMANN M. Conflict, conflict prevention, conflict management and beyond:A conceptual exploration[M]. Uppsala:Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2005.
[51] WOHLFELD M. An overview of the conflict cycle[M]. Valletta:Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies, 2010.
[52] LUND M S. Preventing violent conflicts:A strategy for preventive diplomacy[M]. Washington, DC:United States Institute of Peace, 1996.
[53] United States Institute of Peace. U.S. online training on OSCE[EB/OL].[2021-01-22]. http://react.usip.org/pub/m3/p4.html
[54] YOFFE S, WOLF A T, GIORDANO M. Conflict and cooperation over international freshwater resources:Indicators of basins at risk[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2003, 39(5):1109-1126.
[55] BERARDO R, GERLAK A K. Conflict and cooperation along international rivers:Crafting a model of institutional effectiveness[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 2012, 12(1):101-120.
[56] RVTTINGER L, SMITH D, GERALD S, et al. A new climate for peace-taking action on climate and fragility risks[R]. Germany:European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2015.
[57] POHL B. EU foreign policy and crisis management operations:Power, purpose and domestic politics[M]. Abingdon:Routledge, 2014.
[58] BALLIET D, PARKS C, JOIREMAN J. Social value orientation and cooperation in social dilemmas:A meta-analysis[J]. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 2009, 12(4):533-547.
[59] SONG J, WHITTINGTON D. Why have some countries on international rivers been successful negotiating treaties? A global perspective[J]. Water Resources Research, 2004, 40(5):W05S06.
[60] WALTZ K N. Theory of international politics[M]. Manhattan:McGraw-Hill, 1979.
[61] ZAWAHRI N A, MITCHELL S M. Fragmented governance of international rivers:Negotiating bilateral versus multilateral treaties[J]. International Studies Quarterly, 2011, 55(3):835-858.
[62] WILLIAMS J M. Discourse inertia and the governance of transboundary rivers in Asia[J]. Earth System Governance, 2020, 3:100041.
[63] MVLLER M F, MVLLER-ITTEN M C, GORELICK S M. How Jordan and Saudi Arabia are avoiding a tragedy of the commons over shared groundwater?[J]. Water Resources Research, 2017, 53(7):5451-5468.
[64] DOMBROWSKY I. Conflict, cooperation and institutions in international water management:An economic analysis[M]. Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007.
[65] 钟勇. 基于互惠合作的跨界河流开发利用博弈模型研究[D]. 北京:清华大学, 2016.ZHONG Y. Study on game theory of reciprocity cooperation on transboundary rivers[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University, 2016. (in Chinese)
[66] YU Y, ZHAO J S, ASCE M, et al. Effects of hydrologic conditions and reservoir operation on transboundary cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2019, 145(6):04019020.
[67] LI D N, ZHAO J S, GOVINDARAJU R S. Water benefits sharing under transboundary cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 577:123989.
[68] YU Y, TANG P Z, ZHAO J S, et al. Evolutionary cooperation in transboundary river basins[J]. Water Resources Research, 2019, 55(11):9977-9994.
[69] SIVAPALAN M, SAVENIJE H H G, BLÖSCHL G. Socio-hydrology:A new science of people and water[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(8):1270-1276.
[70] LIU Y, TIAN F, HU H, et al. Socio-hydrologic perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and water in the tarim river basin, Western China:The Taiji-tire model[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014, 18(4):1289-1303.
[71] 田富强, 程涛, 芦由, 等. 社会水文学和城市水文学研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(1):46-56. TIAN F Q, CHENG T, LU Y, et al. A review on socio-hydrology and urban hydrology[J]. Progress in Geography, 2018, 37(1):46-56.(in Chinese)
[72] KANDASAMY J, SOUNTHARARAJAH D, SIVABALAN P, et al. Socio-hydrologic drivers of the pendulum swing between agricultural development and environmental health:A case study from murrumbidgee river basin, Australia[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014, 18(3):1027-1041.
[73] DI BALDASSARRE G, KOOY M, KEMERINK J S, et al. Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 17(8):3235-3244.
[74] GONZALES P, AJAMI N. Social and structural patterns ofdrought-related water conservation and rebound[J]. Water Resources Research, 2017, 53(12):10619-10634.
[75] BALDASSARRE G D, SIVAPALAN M, RUSCA M, et al. Socio-hydrology:Scientific challenges in addressing the sustainable development goals[J]. Water Resources Research, 2019, 55(8):6327-6355.
[76] 芦由. 跨境河流合作演化的社会水文模型研究[D]. 北京:清华大学, 2021. LU Y. Research on the social hydrological model of the cooperative evolution of transboundary rivers[D]. Beijing:Tsinghua University, 2021. (in Chinese)
[77] TIAN F Q, LU Y, HU H C, et al. Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2019, 64(5):507-524.
[78] ZAREIE S, BOZORG-HADDAD O, LOÁICIGA H A. A state-of-the-art review of water diplomacy[J]. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2021, 23(2):2337-2357.
[79] BAR. Basins at risk, program in water conflict management and transformation, Oregon State University[DB/OL].[2020-11-27]. https://transboundarywaters.science.oregonstate.edu/content/basins-risk.
[80] WOLF A T. The transboundary freshwater dispute database project[J]. Water International, 2009, 24(2):160-163.
[81] LAZER D, PENTLAND A, ADAMIC L, et al. Computational social science[J]. Science, 2009, 323(5915):721-723.
[82] BERNAUER T, BÖHMELT T. International conflict and cooperation over freshwater resources[J]. Nature Sustainability, 2020, 3(5):350-356.
[83] GLADWELL M. The tipping point:How little things can make a big difference[M]. Boston:Back Bay Books, 2002.
[84] SAVENIJE H H G. Water scarcity indicators:The deception of the numbers[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B:Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 2000, 25(3):199-204.
[85] WINDER N, MCINTOSH B S, JEFFREY P. The origin, diagnostic attributes and practical application of co-evolutionary theory[J]. Ecological Economics, 2005, 54(4):347-361.
[86] KUMAR P. Typology of hydrologic predictability[J]. Water Resources Research, 2011, 47(3):W00H05.
[87] MILLY P C D, BETANCOURT J, FALKENMARK M, et al. Stationarity is dead:Whether water management?[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5863):573-574.[WX)]
