陆战场低空多域场景下的集群目标威胁动态评估

董泽委

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2024.27.002

清华大学学报（自然科学版） >

2024 , Vol. 64 >Issue 8: 1380 - 1390

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2024.27.002

航空航天与工程力学

陆战场低空多域场景下的集群目标威胁动态评估

董泽委

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1. 清华大学自动化系, 北京 100084;
2. 陆军航空兵学院航电和兵器工程系, 北京 101123

收稿日期: 2023-07-05

网络出版日期: 2024-07-19

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Dynamic assessment of threats to cluster targets in low-altitude multi-domain battlefields

DONG Zewei

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1. Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Army Aviation Institution, Beijing 101123, China

Received date: 2023-07-05

Online published: 2024-07-19

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摘要

未来战争的形态正随着人工智能技术的迅猛发展而加速演变,针对当前目标威胁评估研究中存在的作战场景单域化、研究对象单一化、研究分析过于侧重蓝方态势等问题,该文围绕陆战场低空多域的作战场景,提出一种基于犹豫模糊集的集群目标威胁动态评估方法。首先研究了陆战场低空多域作战规律、有人或无人空地混合集群装备的作战特点,以此建立了集群目标威胁的评估指标体系;然后根据红方态势变化对指挥员心理压力的影响规律,提出了基于Weber-Fechner感知定律的动态权重策略;最后结合犹豫模糊环境下的变权方法,构建了陆战场低空多域场景下的集群目标威胁动态评估模型。案例分析结果表明,该模型的权值确定更加合理,能充分体现指挥员面对战场态势刺激时心理压力的动态变化,提供更加及时准确的威胁评估结果。

关键词： 多域作战; 集群目标; 变权; 动态权重; 威胁评估

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董泽委 . 陆战场低空多域场景下的集群目标威胁动态评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024 , 64(8) : 1380 -1390 . DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2024.27.002

Abstract

[Objective] Threat assessment of targets serves as a critical reference for commanders in wartime decision-making. With the rapid development of unmanned systems and smart technologies, the future of warfare is progressing toward unmanned, multi-domain, and clustered operations. However, existing studies on target threat assessment fall short of effectively satisfying these demands of future warfare, demonstrating three main issues: 1) Majority of combat scenarios focus on singular settings, such as maritime air defense, air-to-air combat, and ground-based air defense, with scant research on multi-domain operations (land, low-altitude, and electromagnetic environments). 2) Research is mainly concentrated on individual entities or cluster targets, such as fighter aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle swarms, and unmanned surface vessels, with inadequate investigation of clustered equipment integrating manned/unmanned ground combat vehicles and low-altitude manned/unmanned aircraft. 3) Current methodologies predominantly consider the state and characteristics of Blue Force targets, ignoring the influence of dynamic changes in Red Force equipment on the weighting of threat indicators for Blue Force targets. [Methods] To deal with these problems, we proposed a dynamic assessment method for threats to clustered targets in low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields based on hesitant fuzzy sets. First, we explored the laws governing low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields and the operational characteristics of clustered equipment that involves manned/unmanned air and ground elements. We analyzed five major influencing factors in the threat assessment of cluster targets, namely, operational cluster type, urgency, comprehensive strike capability, intelligent collaborative capability, and importance of the attack area, and determine an indicator system for threat assessment of clustered targets. Afterward, leveraging the Weber-Fechner law, we explored the relationship between changes in the Red Force's situation and the psychological pressure experienced by commanders and proposed a Weber-Fechner law-based weight determination method, which adjusted the weight values of the Red Force's comprehensive strike capability and the Blue Force's air power strike capability in conjunction with variations in the damage rate of the Red force's air defense capability. Finally, by combining the variable weight method under a hesitant fuzzy environment, a dynamic assessment model based on hesitant fuzzy sets for threats to cluster targets in low-altitude, multi-domain battlefields was constructed. [Results] In a simulation, when the Red Force's air defense system sustains serious damage, the threat posed by the Blue Force's air power intensifies significantly. By utilizing the Weber-Fechner law-based weight adjustment method, the weight determination becomes more scientifically reasonable, effectively and promptly reflecting the psychological changes encountered by commanders when faced with the stimulation of the battlefield situation and reducing the subjectivity and arbitrariness related to weight optimization adjustments. Comparative analysis of the threat assessment results under constant and variable weights demonstrates that cluster targets with air power superiority exhibit more sensitive and timely adjustments in threat assessment results under variable weight conditions with a higher level of consistency. [Conclusions] These results further confirm the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, providing commanders with feasible and reliable decision support.

Key words： multi-domain operation; cluster targets; variable weight; dynamic weight; threat assessment

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