当系统中各组件的失效概率采用区间模型表征时，可以建立基于故障树的系统可靠性分析方法。该文提出一种非概率可靠性指标，该指标首次将系统安全标准或可靠性要求考虑其中，从而可以合理地评价系统的可靠性。基于非概率可靠性指标推导了用于确定各基本事件贡献程度的灵敏度指标，并将所提方法应用到某型飞机襟翼机构不对称运动故障树分析中。结果显示：所提方法可以合理评估系统可靠性并有效计算各基本事件的可靠性灵敏度，从而为开展系统可靠性优化设计提供参考。
A fault tree based system reliability method was developed to predict the failure probabilities of system components by a non-probability interval model. A non-probabilistic reliability index was developed which included reliability or safety criteria to evaluate the system reliability. Then, two sensitivity indices were developed to indicate the contribution of each basic event. This method was then used for a fault tree analysis of the unilateral asymmetric movement of an aircraft flap system. The results show that this method can accurately predict the system reliability and can accurately identify important events to provide references for optimizing the system reliability.
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