PDF(4451 KB)
Modeling and interaction study of multi-virus coupled transmission model
Xiaoli YAN, Ranran TIAN, Hui ZHANG, Tao CHEN, Jiakun DAI
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (9) : 1794-1804.
PDF(4451 KB)
PDF(4451 KB)
Modeling and interaction study of multi-virus coupled transmission model
Objective: In the context of advanced globalization, the transmission of infectious diseases, coupled with multiple viruses, has become a key issue in the field of public health. Traditional models for infectious disease transmission, such as susceptible-exposed-infected-covered (SEIR), typically only consider the transmission of a single virus, limiting its capability to capture the complex interactions of multiple viruses within the same social environment. Multi-virus coupling may demonstrate either a mutually promotional effect or a mutually inhibitory effect between different viruses, affecting the dynamics of transmission and the associated infection risks. Methods: This article enhances the SEIR model by incorporating additional states, such as asymptomatic individuals, divided individuals, and mortal individuals, to accurately characterize the complex population state transitions during the transmission of a single virus. On this basis, a multi-virus coupled transmission model is proposed. This model not only considers the impact of various factors, such as mutually promotional effects, mutually inhibitory effects, and immune escape effects, on coupled infections but also integrates the influence of medical resources, changes in personnel behavior, and prevention and control interventions on epidemic transmission. The multi-virus coupled transmission model can quantify the strength of mutual reinforcement or inhibition between viruses by adjusting the interaction coefficient, facilitating the simulation and analysis of the coupling effect between viruses. Results: Results reveal that the mutually promotional effect between viruses can increase the scale of infection, extend the transmission cycle, and lead to an earlier peak infection time. Additionally, this effect is more pronounced for viruses with larger infection scales than for those with smaller infection scales. In contrast, the mutually inhibitory effect can reduce the infection scale, slow down the transmission rate, and delay the peak infection time. The inhibitory effect is more substantial for larger viruses than for smaller ones. The increase in the immune escape rate can significantly increase the scale of infection and prolong the transmission cycle of the virus. When multiple viruses are transmitted together, changes in the transmission rate of viruses with larger infection scales have a considerable impact on the peak infection rate. In addition, comparing the simulation results of the coupled transmission model with real data shows that the trends are consistent, demonstrating a bimodal phenomenon. The simulation results align well with real data in terms of macro indicators, such as peak time and peak duration. However, in terms of the number of infections, the simulated infection rate is relatively lower compared to the detection-positive rate. Conclusions: The research results have effectively explained the infection patterns of social populations under the coexistence of multiple viruses, emphasizing the crucial role of complex interaction mechanisms between different viruses in real-world infectious disease monitoring and prediction. This article presents a new theoretical framework for the transmission of infectious diseases in a multi-virus coupled environment, offering more accurate and applicable model support for epidemic risk analysis and the development of intervention strategies.
multi-virus coexistence / coupled transmission model / mutual promotion / mutual inhibition / public health
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