Modeling the spread of negative emotions in social networks during sudden public crisis events: Dual mechanisms of social reinforcement and individual regulation

Tiantian WANG, Tiezhong LIU, Congcong LI

Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (6) : 1040-1049.

PDF(4982 KB)
PDF(4982 KB)
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2025, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (6) : 1040-1049. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.22.013
Public Safety

Modeling the spread of negative emotions in social networks during sudden public crisis events: Dual mechanisms of social reinforcement and individual regulation

Author information +
History +

Abstract

Objective: This study integrates social attributes of human behavior as an independent mechanism within the analytical framework of negative emotion propagation dynamics. It aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how negative emotions spread across social networks and establish a scientific basis for effective public opinion management and crisis response. Methods: This study examines the distinct mechanisms of social reinforcement and individual regulation that differentiate the spread of negative emotions in social networks from that of traditional infectious diseases. A heterogeneous propagation threshold model, named the SI-SEIR (social reinforcement and individual regulation susceptible-exposed- infected-recovered) model, incorporates a dual influence mechanism of "social reinforcement-individual regulation". First, we develop a non-Markovian negative emotion propagation model, considering social reinforcement and variations in individual emotion regulation abilities. We then extend the edge-based compartmental theory to determine the theoretical outbreak threshold and final propagation scale, including both continuous and discontinuous phase transitions. Extensive numerical simulations are conducted based on data from the Weibo network, using the Hubei Province Red Cross Society incident at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic to validate the effectiveness of the SI-SEIR model. Results: The findings show that individual emotion regulation abilities and social reinforcement significantly impact the spread of negative emotions. Improving individuals' emotion regulation ability and decreasing social reinforcement intensity can help effectively reduce large-scale outbreaks of negative emotions during public crises. Moreover, the network's topology feature significantly influences propagation outcomes. When individuals have relatively uniform emotion regulation abilities, a higher average degree of the network substantially raises the outbreak threshold, thereby reducing the likelihood of widespread diffusion. Increasing network heterogeneity can help increase the outbreak threshold and reduce the spread of negative emotions. Conclusions: Considering both social reinforcement and individual emotion regulation mechanisms is critical for accurately modeling and predicting the dynamics of negative emotion propagation in social networks.

Key words

sudden public crisis events / online negative emotion propagation / social reinforcement / individual regulation / edge-based compartmental theory

Cite this article

Download Citations
Tiantian WANG , Tiezhong LIU , Congcong LI. Modeling the spread of negative emotions in social networks during sudden public crisis events: Dual mechanisms of social reinforcement and individual regulation[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2025, 65(6): 1040-1049 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.22.013

References

1
郑昱. 突发公共事件中舆论信息传播倾向的影响因素: 基于民众负性情绪的研究视角[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2017, 40 (7): 80- 87.
ZHENG Y . The influencing factors of information dissemination propensity of public opinion in public emergency[J]. Information Studies: Theory & Application, 2017, 40 (7): 80- 87.
2
赵云泽, 薛婷予. 多重突发事件下的群体恐慌情绪传播与风险治理[J]. 苏州大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2023, 44 (3): 162- 169.
ZHAO Y Z , XUE T Y . Research on the communication of group panic and risk management[J]. Journal of Soochow University (Philosophy & Social Science Edition), 2023, 44 (3): 162- 169.
3
WANG J H , FAN Y C , PALACIOS J , et al. Global evidence of expressed sentiment alterations during the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. Nature Human Behaviour, 2022, 6 (3): 349- 358.
4
YANG Y X , ZHANG Y Y , ZHANG X W , et al. Spatial evolution patterns of public panic on Chinese social networks amidst the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022, 70, 102762.
5
吴琦, 李阳. 融入领域风险词典的社会安全事件网络舆情风险评估研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2024, 47 (6): 175- 183.
WU Q , LI Y . Research on network opinion risk evaluation of social security incidents with the domain risk dictionary[J]. Information Studies: Theory & Application, 2024, 47 (6): 175- 183.
6
杨阳, 王杰. 情绪因素影响下的突发事件网络舆情演化研究[J]. 情报科学, 2020, 38 (3): 35-41, 69.
YANG Y , WANG J . The evolution of emergency network public opinion influenced by emotional factors[J]. Information Science, 2020, 38 (3): 35-41, 69.
7
习近平. 高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜为全面建设社会主义现代化国家而团结奋斗: 在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL]. (2022-10-16)[2024-04-22]. https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2022/content_5722378.htm.
XI Jinping. Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics and strive in unity to build a modern socialist country in all respects: Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China[EB/OL]. (2022-10-16)[2024-04-22]. https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2022/content_5722378.htm. (in Chinese)
8
KRAMER A D I , GUILLORY J E , HANCOCK J T . Experimental evidence of massive-scale emotional contagion through social networks[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014, 111 (24): 8788- 8790.
9
LIU H , LU D J , ZHANG G J , et al. Recurrent emotional contagion for the crowd evacuation of a cyber-physical society[J]. Information Sciences, 2021, 575, 155- 172.
10
ZHENG M H , LV L Y , ZHAO M . Spreading in online social networks: The role of social reinforcement[J]. Physical Review E, 2013, 88 (1): 012818.
11
PÉREZ-RECHE F J , LUDLAM J J , TARASKIN S N , et al. Synergy in spreading processes: From exploitative to explorative foraging strategies[J]. Physical Review Letters, 2011, 106 (21): 218701.
12
CENTOLA D . The spread of behavior in an online social network experiment[J]. Science, 2010, 329 (5996): 1194- 1197.
13
WEISS C H , PONCELA-CASASNOVAS J , GLASER J I , et al. Adoption of a high-impact innovation in a homogeneous population[J]. Physical Review X, 2014, 4 (4): 041008.
14
朱代琼, 王国华. 热点公共事件中网络社会情绪演进的影响因素研究: 基于"高铁霸座"事件的探讨[J]. 情报杂志, 2020, 39 (8): 94-100, 116.
ZHU D Q , WANG G H . Research on influencing factors of emotional evolution of cyber society in hot public events: Based on the "high speed rail overlord" incident[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2020, 39 (8): 94-100, 116.
15
GROSS J J . Emotion regulation: Affective, cognitive, and social consequences[J]. Psychophysiology, 2002, 39 (3): 281- 291.
16
GROSS J J . The emerging field of emotion regulation: An integrative review[J]. Review of General Psychology, 1998, 2 (3): 271- 299.
17
KOBYLI$\acute{И}$SKA D , KUSEV P . Flexible emotion regulation: How situational demands and individual differences influence the effectiveness of regulatory strategies[J]. Frontiers in Psychology, 2019, 10, 72.
18
WANG W , TANG M , ZHANG H F , et al. Dynamics of social contagions with memory of nonredundant information[J]. Physical Review E, 2015, 92 (1): 012820.
19
KARSAI M , IÑIGUEZ G , KASKI K , et al. Complex contagion process in spreading of online innovation[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2014, 11 (101): 20140694.
20
MILLER J C , SLIM A C , VOLZ E M . Edge-based compartmental modelling for infectious disease spread[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2012, 9 (70): 890- 906.
21
KARRER B , NEWMAN M E J . Message passing approach for general epidemic models[J]. Physical Review E, 2010, 82 (1): 1- 9.
22
STROGATZ S H . Nonlinear dynamics and chaos: With applications to physics, biology, chemistry, and engineering[M]. 2nd ed Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2019.
23
王家坤, 孟祥宇, 郭筱彤, 等. 耦合情绪与收益的网络舆情传播及治理研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2024, 47 (10): 140- 150.
WANG J K , MENG X Y , GUO X T , et al. Research on the propagation and governance of public opinion coupled emotion and payoff[J]. Information Studies: Theory & Application, 2024, 47 (10): 140- 150.
24
徐琳宏, 林鸿飞, 潘宇, 等. 情感词汇本体的构造[J]. 情报学报, 2008, 27 (2): 180- 185.
XU L H , LIN H F , PAN Y , et al. Constructing the affective lexicon ontology[J]. Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information, 2008, 27 (2): 180- 185.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
PDF(4982 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/