Evaluation of a radar-based storm nowcasting method in the Three Gorges

YANG Wenyu; LI Zhe; NI Guangheng; HONG Yang; Ali Zahraei

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2015, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6) : 604-611.

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Evaluation of a radar-based storm nowcasting method in the Three Gorges

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Abstract

A pixel-based nowcasting algorithm (PBN) was applied at the Three Gorges Region to forecast the rainfall in the short-term. During the 2010 summer, 11 rainfall events gathered with radar were used to evaluate the algorithm performance with four performance statistics including the correlation coefficient, probability of detection, false alarm ratio and critical success indes. The correlation coefficient of the one-hour forecast results is close to 0.6, which suggests that the PBN algorithm effectively tracks and predicts rainfall events within an hour of their occurrence. An analysis of four rainfall events using these performance statistics suggested that the PBN algorithm is a promising nowcasting platform for typical stratiform rainfall events over a large area. However, the algorithm still cannot accurately forecast rainfall with several convective centers.

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nowcasting / weather radar / accuracy assessment

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YANG Wenyu, LI Zhe, NI Guangheng, HONG Yang, Ali Zahraei. Evaluation of a radar-based storm nowcasting method in the Three Gorges[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2015, 55(6): 604-611

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