Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates

LI Yuanyuan; CHEN Jianguo; ZHANG Xiaole; YUAN Hongyong

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2015, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (7) : 803-807,814.

ENGINEERING PHYSICS

Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates

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Abstract

Post-earthquake casualty estimates are of great importance for emergency planning and rescues. The USA earthquake software HAZUS estimates casualties based on building vulnerability, but the model is mainly developed for building structures in California. A simplified rapid casualty assessment model is developed for emergency response and verified against data from the Wenchuan earthquake for Chinese building structures. The estimated number of injuries is close to the actual number, but the estimated number of deaths is lower, because the model seriously underestimates fatalities in the epicenter area. The predicted results are consistent with the actual situation and reflect the severity of the earthquake casualties. The simplified model is suitable for rapid casualty assessments to direct post-earthquake emergency response.

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earthquake casualty / capacity spectrum method / geographic information system (GIS) / ShakeMap / HAZUS

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LI Yuanyuan, CHEN Jianguo, ZHANG Xiaole, YUAN Hongyong. Structure destruction based earthquake casualty estimates[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2015, 55(7): 803-807,814

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