Intercity travel mode choice behavior of travelers in large urban regions during emergencies

YUAN Yali; YANG Xiaobao; LI Honghui; SI Bingfeng

doi:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.26.042

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Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) ›› 2022, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (7) : 1142-1150. DOI: 10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.26.042

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Intercity travel mode choice behavior of travelers in large urban regions during emergencies

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Abstract

This study analyzed the influence of psychological latent variables, urban agglomeration, emergencies and other factors on intercity travel mode choices in large cities. Data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban region was used to estimate an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model for the empirical analysis. The results show that the goodness-of-fit of the ICLV model, which included convenience and ride experience, is better than that of the traditional discrete choice model. Origin and destination, travel distance and frequency of train services all significantly impact the choice of travel mode. The probability of train use in hazy weather increased by 25.69%, the probability of car use in rainy weather increased by 31.63%, the probability of car use in snowy weather decreased, and the probability of car use when the trains were blocked increased. These results are helpful for understanding intercity travel mode choices and provide a scientific basis for predicting travel volume and demand control for intercity travel during emergencies.

Key words

urban agglomeration / travel mode choice / integrated choice model / intercity travel / latent variable / emergencies

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YUAN Yali, YANG Xiaobao, LI Honghui, SI Bingfeng. Intercity travel mode choice behavior of travelers in large urban regions during emergencies[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology). 2022, 62(7): 1142-1150 https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2021.26.042

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